I've been copied on several correspondences about predictions for the technology sector in 2009. Kurt has already covered the general rubbish-ness of at least one particular article
here. Rather than cover the same terrain, here are Evan's Tech Predictions '09:
1.
No Major Changes. That's right, nothing really, really big is going to happen in 2009. This is a year for small, incremental evolution of technologies already in the pipeline.
2.
Dynamic Languages will Continue to Wane. I remember 2007 and 2008 when the only things on anyone's lips were Ruby, Rails and Ruby on Rails. Those were magic times, when so many of us in the industry went through the tutorials for how to make a full-featured blog website in 15 minutes using Rails. We oohed, we ahhed. What power! But something has happened in the last few years:
We've had time to work with these languages.
In a vacuum, dynamic languages are extremely powerful. In the real world, they are rather lacking. Static languages and static typing are powerful tools when developing larger systems with larger teams over larger periods of time.
They also wipe the floor, performance-wise.
I'm not going to defend every static language out there - there are plenty of reasons to criticize them, even my favorite Java. But these larger, static languages have been developed over a long time and, more importantly, with an eye towards a much larger community. They aren't designed to do one thing wonderfully, they're designed to do everything just fine. While some argue that development teams should use several languages, each for the right job, I know just how badly that can come back to bite you when developers leave and all of your expertise for part of your product line walks out the door. I, for one, have no interest in creating a Programmer's Tower of Babel.
3.
SaaS and SOA Will Continue to Be Meaningless Buzzwords. Words are useful because they have meaning. SOA (Service-Oriented Architecture) and it's offspring SaaS (Software as a Service) - along with perennials like "Web 2.0" - mean different things for everyone that uses them. And don't get fooled: those pushing these terms are salesmen doing nothing more than trying to part you from your money.
Take SOA, for example. For some, it meant web services - specifically, SOAP over HTTP. Others used it describe an architecture of coarse-grained components glued together to form a composite. Still others said it was a fine-grained version of the same. Some focused more on decoupling (with an Enterprise SOA Center of Excellence to develop shared XML schemas!), while others emphasized a particular software stack. To just about every business that bought into the idea, SOA meant throwing millions of dollars down a hole to nowhere.
This isn't coincidental: buzzwords kill. They hide details in ambiguity while trumpeting benefits. They're the salesman's weapon of choice, and by now developers should know better.
4.
Experiments in Simplicity Will Thrive. Slowly. Just like the the housing market, the bubble has burst on big vendor SOA/XML/WS-MAGiC/Etc. Much of what we see now is the continued search for smaller, simpler and faster.
Spring has capitalized on it big time and others are racing to follow suit.
XML is being supplanted by
JSON and Google
Protocol Buffers. Users of complex JMS and similar protocols are reverting to HTTP. Heavyweight SOAP is increasingly replaced with lightweight
REST.
All of these alternative technologies have strong followings, but users will continue to be more cautious in adoption. More importantly, in good post-bubble fashion, we won't find everybody going in the same direction.
5.
Open Source Wins Hearts. Take a look at Sun Microsystems. Sun has been vigorously flying the flag of open source, first releasing Java under GPL, then following suit with just about every other product. Then it bought MySQL. Even President Obama has asked Scott McNealy, Sun chairman, to write a white paper about how open source can benefit government.
But this isn't about Sun. Remember when business people looked on at open source with skepticism? Now: remember how long it's been since you've seen that attitude?
The new open source is different, though. This is less about the New Service-Based Business Model and more about cooperation and collaberation. Developers have taken to open source because it helps them, as a community, develop better software with less effort. Their resilience has finally leaked through to the mainstream.
6.
The Winners Will Deliver Value. And nothing more. Solve a real problem and people will give you money, provided you don't ask for too much. The good news? There are still lots of problems out there.
Plenty of firms, from law practices to health care providers, are still struggling to figure out how to leverage information systems for real business purpose, especially in document management and archival. Big IT shops need better tools to manage ever-increasing inventory. Governments - local, state and federal - need better ways to connect employees, communicate with the public and increase efficiency (and might I suggest that they find ways to shorten lines at the DMV). The winners won't just think of cool things that technology can do, but will identify a problem and develop a solution. Then sell it.